Independent Research · Executive Edition

The Forecast
Truth Project 2026

The state of forecast confidence and sales execution — independent research into why forecasting stays hard, despite decades of investment in process, method and technology.

A letter to sales leaders

Every year, organisations invest heavily in CRM, AI, sales training and enablement. Yet the boardroom keeps asking the same question: can we trust the forecast? The Forecast Truth Project 2026 is independent research from SCOTSMAN® AI into why forecasting stays hard despite decades of investment in process, method and technology.

We are inviting a select group of CROs, VPs of Sales, Heads of Sales and Sales Directors to share their experience. Responses are anonymised and combined into what we intend to become an annual industry benchmark.

The finished report will set out the emerging trends, the common causes of forecast inaccuracy, and practical recommendations any sales leader can use — whatever technology or methodology they run today.

The evidence

Address these issues, and independent research is clear on the outcome.

~60%

of forecasted B2B deals slip to the next quarter.

CSO Insights

72%

the win rate of top performers — against an average of just 25–30%.

bENCHMARK

Double-digit

growth from making that excellence scalable across the team — an outcome, not more activity.

Proven gain

The gains are proven. The puzzle is why so few teams capture them — and that is exactly what this project sets out to understand.

What you receive for taking part

A few minutes gets you an honest benchmark, your own cost-of-quality figure, and both books — so you can see what good looks like, and exactly where you stand.

  • A free copy of its companion, Planning a Major Sale with SCOTSMAN® AI — the short, story-led book where you watch the platform plan and win a real, competitive deal, before you ever see a demo.
  • Your free copy of Climbing the Preferred Supplier Ladder with SCOTSMAN® AI — grow the account after the win.
  • A personalised Forecast Truth report — including your own Cost of Quality figure.
  • The Executive Benchmark Report, before public release.
  • An invitation to the executive findings webinar.

With thanks,
The Forecast Truth Project team · SCOTSMAN® AI

The Survey
About eight minutes · Your answers stay anonymous
Part 1
Forecast confidence and performance
Part 2
Qualification, planning and quality
9 Thinking about your current approach, score each statement from 0 (not at all) to 10 (completely).
Statement Score 0–10
Part 3
The three questions

Every competitive deal turns on three questions. Before you forecast a deal, how confident are you that your team can answer each one? Score 0 (no idea) to 10 (certain).

Statement Score 0–10
Part 4
Where deals break
Part 5
Your cost of quality

Every organisation pays for quality — either by investing to get it right, or by absorbing the cost of getting it wrong. Most of that cost is hidden: time lost on unwinnable deals, deals that slip a quarter, and good deals lost that could have been saved.

This section is optional, and round estimates are fine. Give us the few numbers below and your personalised report will show your own annual cost of quality, calculated for you. Nothing here is published against your name.
Part 6
In your own words
Part 7
Your report, both books and next steps

Where shall we send your personalised report and both books?

The two books

The Deal

The Account

The two companions to The SCOTSMAN® Methodology, the definitive 40-year reference behind the methodology. Planning a Major Sale with SCOTSMAN® AI, is the short, story-led book where you watch the platform plan and win a real, competitive deal — the method in motion, start to finish. And Climbing the Preferred Supplier Ladder with SCOTSMAN® AI — grow the account after the win.

Both are yours free for taking part. They are also available to buy — but every leader who completes the survey receives both.

The research behind this project

This project builds on forty years of published, evidence-based work. While the 2026 benchmark is compiled, the white papers below go deeper on the themes in this survey. All are free to download.

  • Achieve Predictable, Consistent & Reliable Sales Forecasting — white paper
  • Qualification and Commitments: The Power of Two — white paper
  • Selling Skills & Behaviours Have to Change — white paper
  • The Aggregation of Marginal Improvements — white paper
  • The New Science of Enabling Sales Excellence — white paper

See the full library of white papers, guides and customer stories at scotsmanmethodology.com/insights.

Privacy & confidentiality

Your responses are never attributed without your permission, and findings are published only in aggregate. The figures you give are used solely to produce your own report.

About SCOTSMAN® AI

SCOTSMAN® AI is the Pipeline Qualification and Planning Platform for complex B2B sales — forty years of proven methodology and AI, working together for forecasts you can trust. scotsman.ai